Monday, June 26, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Premium Continues to Erode

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 12 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 15 to 19 Higher

MILK:

The market continues to feel the effects of the milk production report as it indicated milk production may remain strong for an extended period. The report showed cow numbers have not decreased due to low milk prices. Culling may increase as milk prices declined again in June with Class III back to the lowest price since May 2020. There is also the uncertainty as to the feed supply under the current drought situation in much of the Corn Belt and what that could mean for feed availability and prices. June futures and options will cease trading Tuesday with the June Federal order prices to be announced on Wednesday. Cheese prices will need to find some support or more premium will erode out of futures.

CHEESE:

The May Cold Storage report was neutral to the market with inventory increasing seasonally but remaining below a year earlier. This will have little impact on the market unless demand increases, drawing down inventory at a more rapid pace. However, with milk supply plentiful and cheese production strong, that may take a longer period as buyers do not need to be aggressive anytime soon.

BUTTER:

Butter supplies are higher than a year ago with churning active. This may keep price rangebound for an extended period as buyers and sellers are comfortable. There is little reason to be concerned over supply.




Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 19

In California, milk production is trending slightly weaker. Handlers convey preliminary records indicate May 2024 milk production is below a...