Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Little Expectation for Price Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 4 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

There is not much to be said about the milk market. The inability of underlying cash to trend higher keeps pressure on milk futures. Milk production continues to steadily increase as weather has been good for cow comfort. Crops are being planted at a greater pace than last year and the five-year average, which may result in plentiful feed supplies. It is uncertain whether culling is increasing due to the outlook for lower milk prices. USDA will release the April Milk Production report Friday which will provide an indication of slaughter for the month. The greater issue the market is dealing with is the fact that retail prices are increasing while farm-level prices are decreasing. Lower prices are not stimulating demand as they are not being reflected at the retail level.

CHEESE:

There is demand from buyers, but lower prices continue to unfold. Lower bids are placed during spot trading and sellers continue to offer product at reduced prices to move product. Buyers are picking up supplies to fill current orders, as well as increase ownership to fill later demand.

BUTTER:

Butter may test the top of the price range again but may not be able to penetrate above it as sellers may take advantage of the higher price. Churning remains active, supplying the market. Cream supply is slowly tightening but remains ample for active butter production. The sideways trend is expected to continue. 




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