Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Overnight Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 20 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

There seems to be a little change in attitude as Class III futures pushed higher overnight on follow-through buying. Contracts have traded through December with all contracts currently at their highs for the night. Fundamentally, there has been no change in the market as milk production continues above a year ago with spot milk still being offered at a substantial discount to class. Schools have closed or will be closing for the summer across the country, leaving more milk available for manufacturing. This does not provide the groundwork for milk prices to trend higher anytime soon. However, if buyers want to take advantage of lower prices to increase ownership of supply for later demand, now is the time they may step up more aggressively.

CHEESE:

USDA will release the April Cold Storage report Wednesday, which I estimate will show cheese stocks nearly in line with a year ago. Demand has been steady with production limited by the workforce and not plant capacity. Traders remain cautious over how much strength cheese prices will have as supply remains plentiful.

BUTTER:

Butter gave the impression last week it was going to move to a higher level or even begin to trend higher, but that was not the case as supply and demand remain balanced with buyers and sellers comfortably doing business at the current level. Butter inventory may be at a similar level to a year ago on the storage report.




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