Thursday, May 18, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Butter Breaks Above Sideways Range

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 6 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 to 12 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures took a beating Wednesday, even though underlying cash prices moved higher. It may be difficult to change the bearish attitude of traders. Thursday may be critical for the market as two days of strength in block cheese will need to hold or show more gain for some short-covering to take place in the futures market. However, that may be like pulling teeth. Traders are so entrenched in the idea of limited strength of cash that it will take a monumental effort to change that attitude. Underlying cash will need to continue to increase before traders will become more confident to buy into the market. Current fundamentals do not suggest a change in the milk supply anytime soon. The April Milk Production report will be released tomorrow providing an indication of the direction the market is headed. Cow numbers may be the focus of the report.

CHEESE:

The past two days of gains in the block price certainly have been good to see, but it may be difficult to extend those gains if the pattern remains of higher prices increasing selling interest. Current supply may keep upside price potential limited.

BUTTER:

Price may be breaking out of the range it has been in so far this year. Wednesday, price moved to the highest level since Dec. 22, 2022. It will be critical for price to hold at or above this level or it will fall back into the range. It is positive that price has been finally able to move above the range. However, this could bring in more sellers during spot trading.




Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Close Under Substantial Pressure

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