Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Cautious Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to I Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 12 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $6 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 to 14 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have declined substantially over the past 1 1/2 weeks. Lower prices again dominated the market as overall weakness was seen in underlying cash. Block cheese did increase Tuesday but that was offset by barrel, butter, and dry whey weakness. Steadily increasing milk production will leave sufficient milk supply available to the market. More milk will be available for manufacturing for a brief period over the Easter holiday as schools are closed. However, that is not expected to have a significant impact on the market other than putting more milk for sale on the spot market. The Global Dairy Trade auction trade weighted average declined 4.7% Tuesday, indicating world prices continue to weaken. This will have an impact on export demand. USDA will release the March Federal Order class prices Wednesday.

CHEESE:

The bounce of block cheese price Tuesday may indicate price support might have been found. Buyers were interested at the low price to pick up supply and even bid higher to get some. Barrels did not follow, and the weakness of dry whey kept pressure on milk futures. It will be interesting to see if buyers of blocks will turn more aggressive due to the bounce in price as they will want to purchase supply before price moves much higher again.

BUTTER:

Price may stabilize again after the recent decline. Price has moved to the bottom end of the range and may receive some more aggressive interest from buyers, again keeping the market in a range. Churns continue to run on full schedules as cream supply remains available despite increasing demand from ice cream manufacturers.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 6 Higher SOYBEANS: 15 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...