Monday, April 17, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders May Anticipate Stronger Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 5 to 9 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Last week did not turn out to be as good as it began with milk futures closing lower for the week. Initial trading was stronger as there had been some anticipation that underlying cash prices were low enough to trigger more aggressive buying interest. A repeat of the price movement of last month was anticipated to develop. This generated buying interest in milk futures. However, that did not materialize. Traders might feel cheese prices moving down last week may increase the interest of buyers this week. Milk prices are substantially below a year ago, which may increase culling as cull cow prices are strong. The March Milk Production report will be released Wednesday with most of the focus likely on the increase or decrease of cow numbers. Milk production is expected to be higher.

CHEESE:

The hope is that low cheese prices will stimulate buyer interest. Maybe the better focus should be whether sellers will hold back with offers. Last week, there was a significant amount of cheese traded without buyers having to be aggressive. A sufficient cheese supply remains available for demand, allowing buyers to purchase what they need for current demand as well as for later demand. Cheese inventory has not been increasing so far this year, but that may change as buyers are purchasing ahead for later demand.

BUTTER:

Supply and demand are balanced, leaving price holding within a range. Price is expected to remain in that range this week. The longer the price remains in this range with business being done and contracting taking place for later in the year, the more difficult it may be for much of a price rally to unfold.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...