Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Milk Futures Suggest Higher Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $ Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures did not move higher in relationship with the gain of underlying cash. However, overnight showed a strong open for April through June contracts, holding double-digit gains through the overnight. The pattern has been that overnight strength weakens as the morning progresses, but with the strength of cheese and butter Monday that may not be the case Tuesday. Traders will remain cautious as higher cash prices have not been able to hold very long. Milk supply remains plentiful with spot milk holding a substantial discount to class with spring flush nearing. Strong milk production is expected as weather turns milder. Increased culling may be seen but that may be offset by increased production per cow.

CHEESE:

Unfilled bids for barrels Monday would suggest further buying interest Tuesday. Barrels have had a nice price increase over the past week and may be running out of steam soon. This has been the largest price increase for cheese over a short duration in quite some time. Current supply and production would suggest price strength may be limited.

BUTTER:

Price will likely remain in a range as buyers and sellers seem comfortable at the current level. Demand is good, which should hold price in this area, but not good enough to move price much higher. Churning is active, supplying current demand and building inventory. Buyers have little concern over supply leaving them less aggressive and slowly purchasing ahead for future demand.




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