Thursday, March 16, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 1 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

It certainly has been an interesting week for the dairy complex. Class III price made impressive moves, triggered by the strength in underlying cheese prices. High volume trade in primarily the April contract did not translate into any large moves like what took place Tuesday. There was a lot of trading back and forth with the end of the day showing limited gain. The magnitude of the recent increase of cheese prices for blocks mainly took back what it lost last week. The real strength was seen in barrels. Traders seemed to think the price has risen too far, resulting in May and later Class III futures posting double-digit losses in the end. Overnight trade was mixed, which may continue until further direct is seen from cash trading.

CHEESE:

The recent strength of cheese has been more than expected. The pattern of the past few months has been that any price strength was short-lived. Traders did not follow underlying cash either up or down as much as prices would suggest. However, the recent strength of barrels has been a surprise and welcomed as it improved the milk price outlook. The question is whether that strength will continue.

BUTTER:

Butter price is not going anywhere rather than remaining sideways. Limited business on the spot market does not mean supplies have tightened. It indicates buyers and sellers do not need to use the daily spot market to accomplish business. Sufficient supply is keeping buyers satisfied and sellers are finding willing buyers at the current price level.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Milk Futures Show Strong Gains

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 15 to 20 Higher Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...