Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Focus on Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 11 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Selling pressure from Tuesday did not carry over last night to any great degree. Milk futures adjusted relative to spot prices Tuesday, leaving little reason for traders to follow-through aggressively. There has been little change in fundamentals over the past few weeks, leaving futures movement up to underlying spot price movement. There is some concern Class III futures could follow a pattern that has been evident for quite some time and that is that price weakness could move futures lower than the previous low if spot cheese prices show further weakness. It seems the market may not yet be ready to trend higher, even though there has been a more positive attitude for milk prices later in the year.

CHEESE:

Barrel cheese is only 0.25 cent away from the low of three weeks ago and if it moves below that level, it will be back to the lowest price since November 2023. Blocks are not quite in the same position with price holding better than barrels, leaving a block/barrel spread of 33.50 cents. The large spread between blocks and barrels is not dictating price movement but the fundamentals of the individual categories.

BUTTER:

Price has increased 19 cents over the past three weeks as buyers have been purchasing to build inventory for later demand. Buyers that have been holding back in anticipation of further weakness, have now been pulled into buying as price slowly works higher. This fuels the market to some degree and may not be reflective of current fundamentals. Churning is very active.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - August Butter Production 14.5% Above Year Ago Levels

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