Thursday, December 1, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - No October Dairy Margin Coverage Program Payment

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 9 to 12 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures show minor strength overnight which would be expected based on the increase of barrels yesterday and the market being ready for a price relief bounce. With weather good for cow comfort, production continues to slowly improve leaving sufficient milk available for demand. Many plants indicate they are running near capacity for bottling and processing. FSA released the average soybean meal price for October at $468.68 per ton, a decrease of $5.26 per ton from September. This puts income over feed for October at $10.70. This is above the trigger level leaving no payment under the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

There has been limited trading activity on the daily spot market indicating less need for buyers or sellers to do business on the CME platform. Most business is being done through regular channels. Some milk plants are reporting a slowing in cheese demand moving into December. This is seasonal as many holiday orders have been filled or have product already earmarked for orders over the next few weeks. This leaves buyers less aggressive.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to remain choppy but move slowly lower. Churning is active with some plants turning away offers of cream due to plants running at capacity. The market will be able to absorb quite a bit of butter into inventory before having too negative of an impact on price. However, with more supply available to the market, buyers may hold back purchasing as price declines.




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