Thursday, October 27, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Price Weakness Causes Uncertainty

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 6 to 9 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 7 to 10 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures have been taking a beating as underlying cash has been weakening. The extent of the weakness of underlying cash is uncertain but it seems the strong buying season may have run its course. There will be price fluctuations as buyers and sellers take care of business, but the market may not trend higher anytime soon. Milk output will slowly improve as time progresses. Cow numbers may hold steady with culling done as needed due to various reasons and not because of feed prices. Increasing production will keep sufficient supply readily available for bottling and manufacturing. Buyers of dairy products for end of the year demand have been more aggressive earlier than usual to secure supply and move it to locations ahead of time to ensure availability when needed.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have declined significantly over the past week. Some think prices have declined to levels at which buyers may step back in to purchase supply more aggressively. The last time price fell below $2.00, the market bounced as buyers wanted to increase ownership. However, that was about two months ago when buyers were looking ahead to purchase for holiday demand. Holiday demand will continue, but buyers may not be as aggressive due to having supply already on hand.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to remain in a range with further upside limited. Buyers and sellers seem comfortable at the present price. There has been limited use of butter as a loss leader to bring consumers into stores. Retail stores may have limited supply available and are not inclined to offer it at a lower price and risk being sold out of product.




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