Monday, October 17, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Continued Selling Pressure Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 1 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 12 to 15 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures fell back significantly last week as the underlying cash cheese did not provide support. The decline of $0.10 for barrels during the week took support away from under the market. Milk futures have been bouncing up and then falling back down numerous times since July with prices unable to trend consistently higher even with early holiday buying. That pattern may be near the end of its course as the inability of prices to trend higher during a period when demand is the highest of the year, does not bode well for price potential. The milk production report later this week will be watched closely whether the strong gain of production on the previous report will be maintained. If so, there may be limited upside potential from here.

CHEESE:

The significant decline of barrels on Friday dealt a blow to the market as the loss unfolded without buyer interest. Cheese buyers may have more purchased ahead of time than usual which may reduce the amount of supply needed at this time. Sufficient cheese remains available as sellers continue to bring it to the market rather than hold for a higher price.

BUTTER:

It will be difficult to predict how price will fare through the end of the year. There have been many who have been purchasing more butter than usual earlier than usual and freezing it for later use. There have been predictions of a potential shortage of butter spurring consumers to stock up when they can. This will reduce demand later this year which could reduce price. Butter futures point to a significant decline of price through the end of the year.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...