MILK
November Class III futures closed limit down. It has been some time since milk futures closed limit down. There have been days when price touched limit down, but they did not remain there. The large decline of barrels, coupled with the idea demand may not be as good as it needs to be due to inflation, sent the market tumbling. This weakness will be difficult to overcome even if underlying cash prices show strength. Traders are now accustomed to limited strength before further weakness surfaces. Milk futures have been dropping and then climbing back above $20 a few times in 2023 contracts. The ability to climb back will become less as the year progresses. Forward holiday buying may be about finished, leaving regular demand to carry the baton. That demand may be lower than usual for this time of year. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report showed USDA increasing estimated milk prices next year. However, average prices for Class III are now estimated to be $2.10 below this year. Class IV next year is estimated to be $3.60 lower. The all-milk price is estimated to be $2.70 lower than the average price this year. This certainly is not something to look forward to. However, much can change over the next year.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $20.63 |
| 6 Month: | $20.22 |
| 9 Month: | $20.20 |
| 12 Month: | $20.19 |
CHEESE
Some spot milk still is being sold as a discount upward of $1 per cwt. However, milk available at a discount is becoming less as milk moves to school accounts and as dairy product production for the holidays increases. Cheese prices remain choppy from week to week with this week being no exception. Blocks increased 2.75 cents with five loads traded. barrels declined 10 cents with 11 loads traded. Dry whey increased 2 cents with two loads traded.
BUTTER
For the week, butter declined 4.50 cents with eight loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 5 cents with five loads traded. The supply of available cream is increasing as ice cream manufacturing is winding down. Other Class II products are increasing their usage of cream. Consumers and retail buyers have been increasing their butter purchases, as they want to buy earlier than usual to beat the rush and possible empty shelves. Once all are stocked up and then some, demand may falter.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
December corn declined 8 cents, closing at $6.8975. November soybeans fell 12 cents, closing at $13.8375 with December soybean meal up $0.10, closing at $411.10 per ton. December wheat fell 32.50 cents, closing at $8.5975. October live cattle gained $0.50, closing at $146.95. November crude oil fell $3.50 per barrel to $85.61. The Dow lost 404 points, closing at 29,635, while the NASDAQ fell 328 points, closing at 10,321.
