Friday, October 21, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Under Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 7 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 7 to 10 Lower

MILK:

The milk production report may have an impact on trading activity today September milk production was up 1.5 percent from the previous year. This was the second-largest increase this year and the third month of positive milk production gains. Milk production per cow continues to increase with cow numbers now above the previous year. Class III futures are reflecting that in overnight trade with contracts showing single-digit losses. The selling pressure may not be very heavy as some of this might have been already factored in. Traders will also be looking ahead to the September Cold Storage report which will be released on Monday. It is expected to show a decrease in inventory across the categories, but cheese stocks are expected to remain above a year ago while butter will be substantially lower. Trading is expected to be choppy.

CHEESE:

Cheese demand varies with plants in some areas indicating difficulty keeping up with orders while others indicate having more difficulty moving cheese. Continued high inflation will have an impact on demand, if not now, after the holiday period is finished. Cheese production is increasing as milk production improves. Spot prices are expected to remain choppy.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to remain strong for a few weeks but then may see some weakness as both retail and consumers stock up for the holidays. Consumer purchasing of butter may slow earlier than usual as sales have been strong as consumers are purchasing earlier and freezing it to make sure they have sufficient on hand during the holiday season. Some plants are trying to increase butter output while others continue to




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