Thursday, September 1, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Pressure on Milk Futures

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 5 to 9 Lower
Soybean Futures: 15 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 7 to 10 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have taken a beating again as cash trading has not been supportive to higher prices. After spending a few days above $20.00, September and October Class III futures have fallen below that level. It may be difficult for September to move back above that level as about half of the contract is priced by the trade. Each day that passes, the volatility of the September contract for both Class III and Class IV will diminish. Income over feed was squeezed further as the Agricultural Prices report yesterday showed a decline in the All-milk price for July and a sharp increase of hay prices. The All-milk price declined $1.20 from June while the premium/supreme hay price jumped $56.00 per ton. FSA still has not released the soybean meal price to determine the actual income over feed for the month. This should be out later this morning.

CHEESE:

The lack of buying interest in cheese is a negative factor that could result in further pressure today. Barrels are holding a bit better than blocks with block price potentially falling below the recent low. Demand has slowed somewhat due to continued high inflation impacting consumers. However, the greater issue is high inventory leaving sufficient supply available to demand.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to remain choppy and within the current price range of $3.00 to $3.10. Activity during spot trading continues to remain brisk. Cream is expected to become more available as ice cream production declines, the calendar moves forward and summer demand wanes. Butter production may increase as more cream supply will be available at reasonable prices.




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