Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese Remains Weak

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 8 to 10 Lower
Soybean Futures: 16 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $5 to $6 Lower
Wheat Futures: 7 to 10 Lower

MILK:

The inability of underlying cash cheese prices to hold or increase Monday triggered aggressive selling. This moved September Class III futures below $20.00. Sufficient milk is available to satisfy the demands of schools across the country as well as the needs of manufacturing. The slight increase of milk production in July may indicate further gains might be possible as weather cools and cow comfort improves. Milk production is expected to increase next year as farmers try to improve production per cow rather than expand the herd size. Replacements are tight and construction costs are high. The desire may also change to raise more replacements internally rather than purchasing them. Cows may also not be culled as heavily as they had been.

CHEESE:

Cheese has been unable to find solid support. Buyers do not need to come to the daily spot market to purchase supply due to sufficient supply available in the country through regular channels. Block cheese is testing price levels last seen in November 2021 and has been in a steep downtrend since May. Prices may not find support as long as there remains more supply than demand.

BUTTER:

Butter is the bright spot and continues to move higher, keeping Class IV prices substantially higher than Class III. Buyers have been aggressive on reduced supply of butter and strong international demand. Nonfat dry milk has found some support over the past three weeks, gaining 11 cents adding to the strength of Class IV.




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