Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese Prices to Influence Futures

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Even with the recent price strength in Class III futures, the market remains entrenched in a sideways price pattern. Underlying cash is not moving very much and, in fact, has decreased to the lowest level it has been in the last two months. Class IV futures have been moving higher with new contract highs established again Tuesday. The premium of Class IV futures over Class III is widening. The Farm Service Agency still has not released the average soybean meal price used in the calculation of income over feed for the month of April. This is likely due to Monday being a holiday. This should be released Wednesday.

CHEESE:

Traders are uncertain over the movement of cheese prices. Further weakness of blocks Tuesday was a surprise as traders seemed to discount the negative influence, feeling it was temporary. The concern is that this weakness is a continuation of the weakness of last week. If it continues Wednesday, selling could erupt in futures as liquidation may surface. Demand has been good but may be slowing slightly.

BUTTER:

Price may find some stability here as reduced butter output may keep supply from building. Demand is good through the food service industry but has slowed a little for retail. Inventory continues to remain significantly below the level of a year ago. Price is expected to be choppy.




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