Thursday, April 21, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Pressure on Milk Futures From Production Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 20 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures were under pressure Wednesday impacted by lower cash as well as the uncertainty over the March Milk Production report. Buyers of cash have stepped back as immediate needs have been filled and forward purchasing has reached a comfort level again. The apprehension over the March Milk Production report added some pressure as traders liquidated more long positions. The bearish implications of the report put more pressure on futures overnight. March milk production remained lower than a year ago by 0.05 percent lending some support to the market, However, the increase of 15,000 head of cows to the nation's dairy herd from the month of February was bearish as it indicates farmers are now willing to add cows sooner than had been anticipated. Add to this milk production per cow increasing 8 pounds over March 2021 and we have a renewed bearish attitude developing.

CHEESE:

The recent weakness of cheese may run its course as lower prices may attract renewed buying interest. Prices are not expected to retrace very much under the current market environment. However, increased milk production leaves sufficient milk supply for manufacturing reducing the concern over tightening supply. Further cash weakness is expected Thursday.

BUTTER:

The slight increase of spot butter Wednesday leaves price confined within a range. Buyers could be more aggressive as they want to take advantage of the recent price decline. USDA will release the March Cold Storage report on Friday. It is expected to show an increase of inventory from February but not much, if any, gain over a year ago.




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