Monday, March 21, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Released Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 11 to 15 Higher
Soybean Futures: 15 to 20 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 15 to 20 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures are expected to trade moderately higher prior to spot trading in anticipation of at least steady cheese and butter prices. Traders are not likely to trade any specific market direction with any conviction. Traders will also be cautious over the release of the February Milk production report Monday afternoon and what those numbers will indicate. The general idea is that it will be a friendly report. However, USDA has made some significant revisions to the last few reports, which makes it difficult to predict the level of milk production or milk per cow. I estimate milk production to be down 1.1% from a year ago with cow numbers down 2,000 head from January.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy. The recent increase may be met with renewed seller interest to move product at this level or if price moves a bit higher. There seems to be a balance between supply and demand for the time being. Buyers are looking ahead to later demand and purchasing accordingly, while sellers are moving product and at the same time determining what levels of production and inventory are needed for now and later in the year.

BUTTER:

Price is in a tight consolidation range with buyers and sellers comfortable at the current level. Churning is active and meeting demand as well as building inventory. Cream supply is available but seeing increased demand from ice cream manufacturers. Prices expected to remain in a tight range for the time being.




Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Reaction to the Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 4 Lower ...