Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Become More Cautious

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: 12 to 18 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $5 to $7 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

March and April Class III futures made new highs Tuesday before slipping back. Futures had already priced in the strength of underlying cash seeing no need to move higher. Traders are becoming increasingly cautious now that underlying cash prices are nearly back to the levels they had been before prices fell back significantly. There is concern this could happen again as buyers may again reach price resistance. Steady milk production keeps sufficient milk supply for bottling and manufacturing. The strong winter storm moving across numerous states the rest of this week will hinder some milk pickups and deliveries, but it is not expected to have a large impact. Some plants that have production quotas in place are not penalizing farmers for exceeding their quota at the present time as they need the milk.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have moved back up near the highs again as buyers have been purchasing to fill orders and to increase ownership of supply in preparation for second quarter demand for aged cheese. Fresh cheese to fill retail or restaurant demand cannot be purchased that far ahead. However, is more cheese is purchased now, it may reduce some demand in the spot market later and prices could move similar to what they had during the second half of January. This may increase the caution of traders.

BUTTER:

A strong butter price on the Global Dairy Trade auction Tuesday should keep international interest strong and product moving out of the country. There has been some indication inventory has increased somewhat, but strong demand will limit any significant increase anytime soon. Price is expected to reach back to the high of $2.9350.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - 2024 Milk Production Lower, But Herd Size Growing

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