Thursday, October 28, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Butter Leads the Complex

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 4 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Spot milk supply is reportedly tight in most areas. This does not necessarily mean it is not available, but what is available is commanding a higher price. A few plants indicate they are having a difficult time finding any spot milk. Demand is always higher this time of year as manufacturers are trying to keep up. Milk production is no worse off than last year with the recent milk production report showing production slightly higher. The issue is that there are many different areas that are trying to pull milk due to increasing production of dairy products. This creates a tighter supply. Where the rubber meets the road is whether this will move block cheese prices out of the range it has been in since November. Time may be running out seasonally. However reduced milk production could mean higher cheese prices over time.

CHEESE:

Barrel price has been holding above blocks, indicating a greater demand for barrel cheese and a tighter supply. This strength may support the whole complex keeping Class III milk futures near current or higher prices. Curd manufacturers indicate they are having difficulty keeping up with demand, which is usual at this time of year. However, that has been compounded by labor issues and trucking delays. However, milk is being processed and is getting to where it needs to be.

BUTTER:

Butter buyers have really stepped up to the plate as they increase ownership. Orders are increasing as the holiday season approaches with retail outlets ordering ahead of time to allow for delivery delays. Tighter cream supply and higher prices leaves some plants reducing output rather than pay the higher price for cream. Inventory is decreasing more rapidly, moving it below year earlier levels.




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