Thursday, October 21, 2021

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cattle Slaughter Shows Moderate Increase

MILK

Milk futures got a real shot in the arm Thursday as spot prices rose in all categories. Barrel cheese broke above the range the market has been in for quite some time, but blocks still have not been able to find sufficient buyer interest to move price higher. The milk production report Wednesday showed further retraction of milk production and the nation's dairy herd. This trend is increasing the bullishness of traders and causing buyers in the cash market to become more aggressive. Some of this might be a fear of tighter supply, which could run its course soon, but some might be a reality and buyers want to position themselves in order to be able to meet demand. Dairy cattle slaughter totaled 264,600 head during the month of September. Surprisingly, this was only 3,200 head more than August. This makes one wonder what happened to all the cows based on the decrease of the nation's dairy herd, according to the milk production report, which showed 25,000 fewer cows. Slaughter was 14,200 head higher than last year and the highest slaughter since March.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $19.15
6 Month: $18.86
9 Month: $18.68
12 Month: $18.61

CHEESE

Demand for cheese is steady to higher for both retail and food service accounts. Holiday orders are increasing as usual at this time of year. The extent of demand is expected to be higher than last year due to the restrictions that had been in place with limited holiday gatherings. However, more cheese was consumed at home than usual, but demand generally is higher when holiday festivities take place. Consumers may stock up more as well. They may not want to wait until the last minute to purchase for holiday gatherings.

BUTTER

Butter output has been normal in most areas even though plants have had to deal with the lack of workers at times. The plant fire last week in Idaho has resulted in cream being absorbed by other plants in the region. It has also caused some concern over the availability of fresh butter in the area as the holiday season moves closer. However, there is sufficient supply of butter to meet demand. Some supply may need to move around to different areas and regions to supply the needed product, but demand will be satisfied.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn declined 7 cents, ending at $5.3225. November soybeans fell 21.50 cents, closing at $12.24, with December soybean meal down $4.40 per ton, closing at $324. December wheat declined 8 cents, ending at $7.4125. October live cattle declined $0.97, closing at $124.97. November crude oil declined $0.92, ending at $82.50 per barrel. The Dow slipped 6 points, ending at 35,603, while the NASDAQ gained 94 points, closing at 15,216.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trade Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...