Thursday, September 23, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures took back much of the gains from Tuesday. Underlying cash prices continue to remain in the range they have been in much of the year. Markets generally see more strength into September and October as buying for the holidays takes place in order to prepare for upcoming demand. Cash markets and milk futures show no evidence of this taking place. Milk supply has been higher than last year, providing for the needs of bottling and manufacturing without difficulty. Actually, plants had been processing heavy supplies for much of the year. The trend may be changing as culling is increasing with milk production per cow declining.

CHEESE:

The increase of American cheese inventory in August certainly was not a good sign. It has happened in other years but is not a normal situation. All cheese inventory is above year earlier levels, which may leave prices under pressure as buyers remain confident of supplies. The current pattern could indicate inventory at the end of the year could be higher than last year. Futures seem to be reflecting that.

BUTTER:

The Cold Storage report was friendly to the market. Inventory for August was below a year ago. Stocks have not been below the previous year for quite some time. The combination of lower production and increased demand is reducing supply. Price should at least develop a sideways trading pattern if not regain much of the recent price decline.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Increase

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