Wednesday, August 25, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Underlying Cash Needs to Hold

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 9 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures moved higher early Tuesday, but buyer interest ran its course when spot barrel price failed to increase. This normally would not have been bearish, but that is not the case in the current market environment. Traders have been accustomed to limited price strength on account of underlying cash price increases being short-lived. The Milk Production report showed strong milk production even during a month of record hot weather. The Cold Storage report showed increasing cheese stocks. This did not paint a picture of higher prices anytime soon. Class III milk futures show prices in the $17.00 range throughout the next year and a half.

CHEESE:

Buyers of cheese are looking ahead to end-of-year demand and are purchasing supplies accordingly. The problem is they are able to purchase those supplies without having to be aggressive on the spot market. This leaves prices fluctuating daily as business is being accomplished on an as-needed basis and at reasonable prices.

BUTTER:

The trend in butter may be turning higher. However, there is no reason to believe buyers will become very aggressive. Lower inventory in July is a good sign demand is exceeding production. This may reduce inventory and support further price strength.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...