Thursday, July 15, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertainty to Dominate Early Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

The selling pressure that took place in Class III futures Wednesday could follow through Thursday. Trading may be light until further price direction is received from spot trading. Fundamentally, milk production remains strong keeping bottlers and manufacturers supplied. Overall milk production has not been impacted significantly from higher grain prices nor from hot weather. It has impacted some states more than others, but milk supply continues to satisfy demand. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is moving forward with a hearing on dairy pricing. The purpose of the hearings are to allow input from farmer and processors over possible changes to the milk pricing system. There has been no firm date set, but it is likely they will take place sometime this fall.

CHEESE:

Lower cheese prices on the spot market Wednesday was an unwelcomed sight, but not entirely unexpected. Plentiful cheese supplies are expected to limit the upside price potential. However, buyers wanted to gain ownership of product early rather than later to avoid having to purchase at higher prices if milk supply would happen to tighten later in the year. The weakness Wednesday may result in buyers holding back Thursday waiting to see how aggressive sellers will be.

BUTTER:

Price held Wednesday but remains in an overall downtrend. The increase in demand from the food service industry is being offset by lower demand from retail. According to the weekly Cold Storage report, butter inventory is selected surveyed warehouses continues to increase.




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