Monday, July 12, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Prices May Trend Higher

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

If the pattern of last week holds, both futures and cash should trend higher. Class III futures have been increasing, but not as much as would be possible if it were not for the weakness of dry whey. Dry whey did show some strength on Friday, but it is unclear whether it has found support and will now trend higher. If dry whey shows more strength this week, Class III futures could move substantially higher. However, milk production continues to remain strong and higher than a year ago. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report will be released Monday and will provide direction for grain prices, at least for a while before it turns back to weather. The report will provide USDA's estimates for milk production, milk prices and dairy product prices for this year and next year.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have been trending higher with blocks leading the gains. Cheese supply is readily available for demand, but buyers are looking ahead to upcoming demand and are increasing ownership of supply. The increase of cheese prices has brought buyers from the sidelines as they now want to purchase before prices move too high. This may continue for a while, which may tighten the fresh cheese market to some extent.

BUTTER:

Butter is somewhat of a wild card with price slowly decreasing instead of following the direction of cheese. Price is now below block cheese again. Retail demand for butter has slowed as demand from the food service industry has improved. Cream supply is expected to tighten during the upcoming weeks, which may reduce output slightly.




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