Friday, June 11, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Activity Prior to Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 8 to 12 Lower
Soybean Futures: 10 to 15 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

It is interesting to see that USDA estimated milk production to continue to increase both this year and next year. Even though feed prices are projected higher, they feel dairy producers will continue to push milk production. If their estimate for production this year at 228.5 billion pounds becomes a reality, it would be an increase of 5.3 billion pounds over 2020 and a new record high. They estimate another 2.6 billion pounds to be added to that for 2022. If grain prices do not move much higher than they currently are, it is unlikely milk production will slow. Milk futures may not see much movement again Friday unless underlying cash prices show a significant change.

CHEESE:

The bounce of cheese prices Thursday may be just that. Traders did not buy the market aggressively but wanted to wait and see whether a higher trend will develop. Recent price bounces have been short-lived, which is keeping traders cautious unless proven otherwise.

BUTTER:

Butter will remain in a sideways price range as buyers and sellers seem to be comfortable near current levels. Supply and demand seem to be balanced. Production is sufficient to meet demand as well as build some inventory. There is little to no concern over supply tightness.




Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 5

For California, milk production continues to trend steadily higher week-over-week to finish out the month. In terms of a year-over-year comp...