Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Weakness Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 12 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Futures: 7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 8 Higher

MILK:

Class III futures are again struggling due to the recent weakness of cheese. However, there continues to remain an amount of bullishness as some are convinced higher feed prices will reduce milk production and thereby increase milk prices as the year progresses. This will keep a premium in futures unless proven otherwise. Weather has been good for cow comfort in most areas of the country. Spring flush is at its peak or slowly declining in some areas. However, overall milk output is expected to remain above last year. The May Class III price will move mostly sideways from now until the price is announced and will adjust mainly to changes on the weekly AMS report.

CHEESE:

The recent weakness of cheese prices is a concern. Demand is good, but with the food service pipeline filled and retail demand steady, buyers are not quite as aggressive on the spot market. There is sufficient cheese available out in the country to satisfy demand. Buyers are expected to hold back again Tuesday, hoping sellers will remain aggressive.

BUTTER:

The drop of spot butter Monday was a surprise. The decline eliminated half of the gain of last week with the expectation for further loss again Tuesday. Restaurant demand has been increasing, but at the expense of retail demand. This keeps product moving, but there is also indication of some inventory build.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Prices Showed Limited Changes This Week

MILK: Milk availability is higher and will remain that way for another week or so as milk is diverted from school accounts. Spot mil...