Thursday, May 6, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Activity Due to Uncertainty

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 9 Higher
Soybean Futures: 12 to 20 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures seem to have set their sights on $20.00 but are having a difficult time reaching that level. Underlying cash continues to slowly increase, but it has not yet pushed futures to that level. Traders remain cautious due to strong milk output and readily available cheese supplies. Some buying in the cash market seems to be tied to increasing grain prices and the fear of the effect on milk supply down the road. The May futures contract is the lead month and currently indicates milk prices will be quite a bit better than they were for April. They need to be to somewhat keep up with escalating feed prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese demand remains strong. Restaurant demand has increased significantly, pulling substantial amounts of product to fill the depleted pipeline. That has now been filled, leaving the demand mostly steady for the food service industry. Export demand is improving as seen on the numbers for March. Even with that, inventory continues to increase seasonally. Cash prices are expected to remain supported.

BUTTER:

Price is slowly decreasing as supply is sufficient for demand and then some. Even though butter stocks increased very minimal in March, inventory still remained 15% higher than a year earlier. Now, there is an indication inventory is increasing again and seasonally it does increase through June. Demand from the food service industry has been strong, but there are reports retail demand has slowed a bit. Price is expected to slowly erode.




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