Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Higher Spot Prices Expected

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Butter Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 1 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

Milk:

Class III milk futures are on track to be a better year than last year. If these prices hold, it will be better as the large negative Producer Price Differentials will not be a factor. Butter price continues to remain above cheese, which improves overall pricing. June closed above $20.00 but has traded lower during the overnight session. However, there is no indication that cheese buyers have finished their buying spree, which will continue to support futures prices. Milk futures showing this strength during this time of year is unusual historically. However, the past few years have shown price movements that indicate there is no usual and historical anymore. Reports are that milk receipts continue to increase at the plant level as spring flush gears up.

Cheese:

Barrel cheese has made an impressive increase exceeding the strength of blocks. This has narrowed the price spread significantly. This does not indicate any market strength or weakness as there is no usual or optimum spread between blocks and barrels anymore. Each runs on its own fundamentals. Buyers of cheese do not seem to have enough on hand and may continue their aggressive buying approach Tuesday.

Butter:

Price remains above cheese and is expected to remain that way for an extended period of time. It seems that the public has the pent-up desire to dine away from home, which has increased demand substantially more than anticipated. Eventually that will be satisfied, and the food service pipeline will be filled. However, exports continue to remain very strong due to the U.S. price being very attractive to international buyers.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Raises Milk Production

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