Thursday, April 1, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Futures May Settle Back

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 25 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 15 to 20 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Soybean Futures: 5 to 16 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

Milk:

It may be that Wednesday was April Fools' Day for milk futures. Lower butter and block cheese prices had no impact on the market as traders were focused on the bullish Prospective Plantings report and the idea that higher grain prices will limit milk production. Short-covering ran rampant, propelling some Class III contracts limit-up for a short period of time. The only real bullish aspect of the spot market was the significant increase of dry whey price, which has a strong impact on Class III. However, Class IV futures were also significantly higher due to the euphoria of the market. Futures may show a large correction Thursday if spot trading does not support the jump of prices.

Cheese:

Cheese prices are having a difficult time breaking out of the sideways trading range. Strong cheese production due to increased milk output may keep prices rangebound. Increased demand may be offset by increased supply. Weakness Wednesday may cause buyers to step back again.

Butter:

Butter price declined for the first time in seven consecutive trading sessions. This does not mean the top is in. There could potentially be a price retracement for a period as market participants assess supply and demand. Thursday is the last trading day for the week. Markets will reopen Sunday evening at 5 p.m. CDT.




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