Monday, April 5, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Trade Expected to Develop Slowly

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

It was a very good week for milk futures last week. Prices were initially propelled higher in response to the Prospective Plantings report, indicating the potential for higher grain prices and the impact that could have on milk production. Strength continued after the report due to the increase of cheese prices on Thursday. After the extended weekend, some reality may settle in as the increase of underlying cash on Thursday may have been more than factored in with significantly higher futures. The better price outlook will keep milk production strong, even though there are higher grain prices. Adjustments will be made to rations and forward contracting has been, or will be, done as it generally is. The crops for this year have not been planted and we have no idea what the weather will be like. Much can change, but the potential for higher milk prices is encouraging.

CHEESE:

Block cheese prices are trying to push higher and are close to reaching back to the high of March 19. Barrels remain in the sideways range they have been in since December. This makes the recent futures price increases a bit suspect and maybe more in line with exuberance rather than reality. However, the potential for significantly higher grain prices is a reality that may impact production.

BUTTER:

The market continues to uncover buying interest. Buyers seem to be trying to outbid each other in the attempt to increase ownership of physical supply. Even though inventory is large, increasing demand from the food service industry and strong exports are causing buyers to be aggressive. The spot price increase over the past two weeks has been impressive.




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