Monday, April 19, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - A Top May Have Been Reached

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 6 to 10 Higher
Soybean Futures: 8 to 12 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures were able to rebound Friday, stopping the huge sell-off that took place. Cheese prices were low enough to bring buyers back in as they wanted to increase ownership of supply. It will be interesting to see whether that buying will continue or if the upper price threshold is now lower. Even after the huge decline of milk futures last week, prices continue to hold at good levels. This is a topic of discussion due to stronger grain prices, but it will not impact milk production for a period of time as production will continue to remain strong for a while. The March Milk Production report that will be released on Wednesday is expected to show strong output and large cow numbers. There is sufficient milk available. It will be up to demand to determine the potential for prices.

CHEESE:

The rebound of cheese prices on Friday was welcomed. Whether it will continue Monday, or this week is a question that has been mulled over during the weekend. Food service demand has increased significantly, but the pipeline has been mostly filled leaving demand somewhat steady from that area of the industry. One must remember that one area of bullish support is being eliminated by the discontinuation of the Food Box program.

BUTTER:

Price has been moving lower since April 12 but is not expected to see much downside. With the food service pipeline being filled settling down to maintaining supply to that area and retail demand remaining strong.




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