Monday, March 1, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Restaurant Demand May Slowly Improve

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 1 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 8 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Higher

Milk:

There were three contract months in Class III futures that closed at $18.00 or higher. These were August, September and October and all posted new contract highs. Greater demand optimism is developing as the approval of Johnson & Johnsons COVID-19 vaccine now has three approved vaccines available to the market. This is expected to slowly increase demand from the food service industry as the world will return back to normal as far as human interaction is concerned. As far as everything else is concerned, there is no real normal as things are constantly changing. The calendar has moved to March and closer to spring flush. It is difficult to determine how much milk will be coming to the market over the next few months, but it is on track to exceed the levels of last year. With milk futures indicating potentially higher prices moving through the year, cow numbers will remain large and milk production will continue to increase.

Cheese:

The weakness of cheese prices Friday may only indicate the market will remain choppy. There seems to be good price support under the market, but there may also be a limit as to upside potential for a period of time. Demand from the food service industry is slowly improving, but that may be at the expense of some retail purchasing to some extent. However, the return of restaurant dining to pre-COVID levels will take some time to develop. There have been substantial amounts of restaurants that have closed and may not reopen again.

Butter:

Only new-crop butter can be offered for sale on the CME spot market beginning Monday. That means that butter produced before Dec. 1 cannot be sold on the daily CME market. This may not have much impact as this takes place each year. It does not impact the availability of butter in the marketplace, only the CME spot market. Butter production has been strong, but demand has also been improving.




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