Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Price Gains May Be Selling Opportunities

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 8 Lower

Milk:

Closer month Class III futures have been moderately following block cheese higher, but with caution. The pattern has been that price bounces have been short-lived. Prices then resumed the downtrend after weakness returned. Traders have not become overly optimistic as underlying cash has not increased very much, resulting in a change of trend. February contracts are now front-month and will try to remain close to cash either on strength or weakness. Snow and colder weather has moved through the Northeast and will be moving through the Midwest later this week. This will have some impact on milk output for a short period of time, but the effects will not linger. Milk production continues to run significantly higher than last year and is expected to remain that way for the foreseeable future.

Cheese:

Block cheese increased the past two days, but buyers have not been very aggressive. Further gains may be possible as price may not have moved high enough for sellers to be more aggressive and take advantage of increased price. The higher cheddar price on the Global Dairy Trade auction is positive for the world market but may not have an immediate impact on spot prices.

Butter:

If the pattern holds, sellers may be aggressive Wednesday in the hopes that they can sell butter at higher prices. Price bounces have been used as selling opportunities in the past. Plentiful supply may keep this pattern in effect. Churns remain busy as they are utilizing a large cream supply rather than attempting to sell extra cream on the spot market, which has been somewhat difficult.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

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