Thursday, February 4, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Choppiness Expected to Continue

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 2 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

Milk:

Class III milk futures have been moving sideways so far this week with the exception of April, which has made lower lows each day. Traders are ready and willing to step in and purchase milk futures if underlying cash provides the catalyst. There is little to suggest underlying cash prices are poised to trend higher for an extended period of time. Milk production continues to slowly increase with plants still able to handle the increasing supply. Spot milk that is available on the market is running quite a bit lower in price than usual for this time of year. This is a concern as we have not yet moved into spring flush. Supply will be plentiful to meet bottling and manufacturing demand; even the increased demand from government purchases.

Cheese:

Price increases are short-lived. This pattern was again seen Wednesday as blocks turned lower eliminated the earlier gains of the week and moving to the lowest level since May 13. Barrels took their turn to move higher, but that is also expected to be short-lived. The best we may hope for in the near-term is a sideways market, which would indicate support has been found. USDA will release the December Dairy Products report Thursday, which is expected to show increased production of cheese for the month.

Butter:

Price was able to hold the gain on Tuesday. The concern is that there were no buyers or sellers showing up during spot trading. It was as if each side was waiting for the other to tip their hand. That may bring uncertainty to the market Thursday, which could bring sellers back in during spot trading. Butter production in December is expected to show a strong increase on the Dairy Products report Thursday.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 6 Higher SOYBEANS: 15 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...