Thursday, February 18, 2021

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Class I Price: $15.20

MILK

The adverse winter weather has cut a large swath across the country, but this impact has been felt the most in Texas. There have been more reports of milk that has been dumped due to the inability of getting it picked up or because of no electricity or plant workers. Some milk and cream has been able to move out of the area to be absorbed by other processors. Other areas report delays, but not the loss of milk. Spot milk prices in the Midwest are not as low as they had been due to milk output being affected. Spot prices are reported at the most $6.50 below class. It is difficult to say how much impact from these storms will be felt over the next month or so. The opposite is seen in the West, as California milk output is heavy, and plants are running at capacity. So far, buyers of cheese have not been concerned as price has slowly eroded this week. This leaves little room for plants to take on extra milk even though it carries an attractive price. The March Class I price is $15.20, down $0.34 from February.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $16.29
6 Month: $16.93
9 Month: $17.22
12 Month: $17.25




CHEESE

Prices are moving in the wrong direction from what many had hoped. If there is little support being felt with ongoing government purchases now, what would it be like if Food Box programs are not extended and other supplemental programs are scaled back? That is not expected to happen anytime soon, but if it does, the supply-and-demand balance might be tighter due to some other reason. Weekly cold storage in selected surveyed warehouses shows a 3% decrease of cheese for the first half of the month.

BUTTER

Butter took a breather Thursday from the strong gains of the past week. Now the question will be whether it is a pause before resuming the higher trend or if it has reached a plateau. Friday will provide an answer for that. Butter production remains strong due to plentiful cream supply. Some plants in the Midwest report taking some cream loads that have come from Texas or nearby areas, as it is unable to be processed in those regions due to adverse weather. The storm system will move out this weekend, allowing things to get back to normal over time. Weekly cold storage in selected surveyed warehouses shows an increase of 8% for the first half of the month.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

March corn declined 2.75 cents, ending at $5.5025. March soybeans dropped 8.75 cents, ending at $13.75, with March soybean meal down $5.80 per ton, closing at $425.90. March wheat jumped 18.50 cents, closing at $6.6250. February live cattle declined $0.17, ending at $115.12. March crude oil declined $0.62, closing at $60.52 per barrel. The Dow lost 120 points, closing at 31,493, while the NASDAQ dropped 100 points, ending at 13,865.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trade Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...