Friday, February 19, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Butter May Be at a Crossroad

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

Milk:

Class III milk futures have been slowly eroding the past two days due to weakness of cheese prices. The good news is that Class IV futures have been slowly improving, bringing the price spread closer together. But that can change quickly again based on underlying cash. The storm system that has been dominating the news will be moving out this weekend, but it is leaving significant challenges in its wake. Some milk has been dumped and processing has been affected in those areas hit the hardest. However, the market has taken this in stride, and in the end, it will likely have little impact on the market as a whole. Milk and cream will still be sent out of those regions that continue to struggle with blackouts and natural gas shortages. Cow comfort and feeding schedules have been impacted but will return to normal over a short period of time. There is disaster assistance available for those who have been impacted by the storm though USDA. Producers will need to contact local FSA offices to see what assistance is available and what is required. Documentation will be important.

Cheese:

Cheese prices have not performed well this week with the expectation further weakness may unfold Friday. Overall cheese production remains strong. Excess milk is available for those who want it. Discounts are a little less than they have been due to the impact of the storm in some areas. Plants want to continue to move product in order to limit inventory build at the plant level.

Butter:

Spot trading will be watched closely as the stability Thursday with no interest shown in doing business leaves traders anxious over price direction. It has been an exceptional run higher over the past 1 1/2 weeks. Export interest has increased, but inventory continues to remain high. Buyers may have reached price resistance for the time being. 




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