Monday, February 1, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Volatility Expected

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 3 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures: 4 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

Milk:

The last half of the week showed milk futures in somewhat of a tight range with limited volatility. That is expected to continue as the new week begins. Fundamentals are following a usual pattern for this time of year as milk production continues to slowly improve. Despite an increase in buying of dairy products through government programs, there are plentiful supplies to meet the increased demand. Increasing cow numbers and strong output per cow puts the market in a different position than last year. The milk replacement inventory as of Jan. 1 was lower than a year ago, but that may not have an impact on cow numbers moving forward through the year. The market is not providing an incentive to reduce cow numbers.

Cheese:

The hope is cheese prices may have found support as regular consumer demand as well as increased government purchases might be sufficient to offset higher production. The concern through the end of last year is the already growing supplies of cheddar cheese earlier than usual. Exports for December will be released this week and are expected to show slower movement to the international market due to the lagging impact of the record high price last year.

Butter:

Strong churning activity and plentiful cream keeps supply growing. Inventory generally grows this time of year and the current rate of growth could move inventory to nearly 50% more than a year ago during the first quarter of the year. Price is expected to see further pressure as sellers offer product lower to stimulate demand.





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