Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Gains Expected

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 70 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 10 to 20 Higher
Butter Futures: 4 to 5 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures: 15 to 25 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $6 to $10 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Higher

Milk:

Class III milk futures opened substantially higher as expected when overnight trading began. Those who could not buy contracts Tuesday due to contracts being locked limit-up much of the day, took the opportunity last night. Once the initial flurry of trading took place last night, there has been limited price movement during the rest of the night. That will change Wednesday as more traders again become active. The question is, "Has the market reacted too much to the announcement of the Food Box program?" The rise of underlying cash will determine the level of market prices. Most of the price activity has taken place in February and March futures as that is it the time frame during which much of the purchasing for the Food Box program is to take place. Markets has expanded limits Wednesday, but they may not need them as most positions have now been squared away. USDA will release the November Dairy Products report Wednesday afternoon.

Cheese:

Cheese prices increased Tuesday, but the increase was not to the extent they did on Dec. 22 when money was appropriated for food programs as part of the stimulus bill. The Farmers to Families Food Box program is more direct and should result in more price movement. Price has yet to break out of its sideways trading pattern from mid-November.

Butter:

Butter supplies are better positioned to meet increased demand resulting from the Food Box program. Supplies ended the year significantly higher than last year with current production remaining strong. Buying should lift price, but the gain may not be quite as strong as might be seen in cheese. Higher price is expected Wednesday as buyers will look to purchase supply.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - 2024 Milk Production Lower, But Herd Size Growing

MILK: Class III milk futures lost over 80 cents on the March contract this week, while Class IV lost over $1.40 from this time last week. We...