Friday, January 22, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese Prices May Diverge

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 6 to 9 Lower
Soybean Futures: 25 to 30 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $7 to $9 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 top 15 Lower

Milk:

It is fortunate traders are keeping some optimism in later futures contracts or the outlook would be rather bleak. Futures have declined, but not with the magnitude as closer months. However, closer months will also increase more rapidly if cheese prices would rebound as they had done at the end of last year. After the huge market inversion of futures, it has moved back to a more normal markets with higher prices into summer and fall before slipping back into the end of the year. This does not mean the volatility will be over as futures were this way during the first half of December as well. Growth of milk production is steady with many manufacturing plants running full and even diverting some milk in some cases. The market has not even come near to spring flush yet, which may really cause some problems. Spot milk prices for excess milk are already lower than usual for this time of year.

Cheese:

The unfilled bids remaining at the close for barrels Thursday in the spot market would suggest buyers might become more aggressive at the current price. Sellers may take a wait-n-see attitude at the beginning of spot trading to see whether they will increase bids. Blocks may show the reverse as there were offers remaining Thursday at the close. It is difficult to determine where support lies due to current supply being sufficient for demand.

Butter:

Price is expected to come under further pressure Friday as sellers try to sell at the best price before it retraces further. Demand needs to increase substantially in order to balance supply with demand. However, that may not happen anytime soon as the food service industry continues to struggle overall. Government purchases for food programs will help but may not be enough to limit significant inventory build.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trade Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...