Friday, January 8, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Lower Overnight Markets

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Higher

Milk:

Class III futures are again taking a breather, but this weakness may be short lived. It may follow a similar pattern as Thursday. Once more traders begin looking at the market this morning, more aggressive buying may surface pushing futures back up. Cheese prices increased Thursday, so there is no reason to believe futures will move much lower. However, one concern could be that barrels did come of its high Thursday, but that does not indicate much of anything in a market environment such as this. The level milk prices could reach will be determined by underlying cash. Traders are looking back to what took place last year as a result of the Food Box program and are bullish on prices.

Cheese:

The spread between blocks and barrels is widening rather rapidly again. The spread was exceptionally wide last year for quite some time. The market gives the impression that may happened again. The inability of a buyer to obtain a load of blocks yesterday even after price increased 11.25 cents, suggests price will move higher Friday. Sellers are holding back to see how aggressive buyers will be. Cheese is available and will move at the right price. Not only are buyers looking back to what happened last year, but sellers are also looking back.

Butter:

Butter is moving to the beat of a different drum. Demand will increase as a result of the Food Box program, but supplies are large and more readily available. Cheese that is sold on the CME spot market must be 30 days of age or less while butter can be frozen, and sold later on the CME spot market, making it more readily available. Price may continue to move sideways or lower.




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