Thursday, December 10, 2020

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - USDA to Release Price Estimates

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures:5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:Mixed
Butter Futures:Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures:1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:5 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:$1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:6 to 9 Higher

Milk:

Cheese prices are providing support to Class III futures. As long as buyers continue to purchase, milk futures will hold. Any weakness of underlying cash could send contracts quickly lower. Front-month December made a correction overnight due in part by better prices on the weekly AMS product prices report released Wednesday afternoon. Futures price adjustments from this report have been significant this year as volatility has made it difficult to predict. The December contract is moving close to the time during which the contract will be basically unaffected by underlying cash. However, price adjustments will be made based on AMS weekly price averages. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report Thursday, which will provide their estimates for milk production both this year and next year. It also provides estimates for milk prices and dairy product prices for this year and 2021. The report is not a market-mover as it only provides estimates.

Cheese:

Cheese prices seem to be carving out a sideways trading range. The hope is that prices do not fall below this recent range. However, there are reports from manufacturers that cheese sales have slowed to some extent. This has yet to have a further negative impact on the market. Increased cheese production is bringing more supply to the market with sellers wanting to keep moving it.

Butter:

The weakness of price Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday. Buyers will hold back and be willing to purchase at lower prices. Because of the weakness Wednesday, sellers are expected to be more aggressive Thursday in the attempt to move supply at as high a price as possible.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Raises Milk Production

MILK: Class III milk futures suffered a large setback in response to the decline in cheese prices. Despite the decline, the block ch...