Monday, December 14, 2020

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Quiet Overnight Markets

 Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures:Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:Mixed
Butter Futures:Steady to 1 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures:1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:8 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:5 to 7 Lower

Milk:

Traders will be cautious Monday morning as there were some that were burned badly Friday with the limit move higher and then falling all the way back some contracts closing lower. Early emotion ran its course with reason finally returning once short-covering was completed. Underlying cash did not support the explosive price rally. That may keep traders on the sidelines somewhat until further underlying cash price direction is seen. Current market fundamentals are not conducive for any long-term change in trend. Some optimism might surface now that the COVID-19 vaccine has been approved and is being shipped to various outlets. But that optimism should be viewed on a long-term basis as the "back to normal" will take some time to achieve.

Cheese:

Holiday demand for cheese has slowed as it generally does at this time of year. Orders have already been filled with purchasing being done as needed for immediate orders. Retail demand remains strong, but manufacturers indicate there is a slowing of demand. Many are trying to limit production to keep pace with demand, but high milk receipts are making that difficult. Spot milk may have greater difficulty finding a home during the holiday period as many plants are running at capacity.

Butter:

Price may have run its course to the upside and may move back down into the sideways to lower trend it has been in since July. However, low price has stimulated demand from the export market. Price may need to remain low in order to keep product moving. Inventory is on track to close this year significantly above the end of last year.




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