Friday, December 11, 2020

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Hold Gains

 Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

Milk:

Trading might be light prior to spot trading with traders uncertain of cash price movement. USDA was not kind in their estimates of milk prices for next year as they reduced the Class III average price by $1.65 from their November estimate and reduced the all-milk price by $1.10. Class IV faired a little better with a price reduction of $0.40. This clouds the outlook for milk income next year. So one has to ask the question as to how much money the government will appropriate for further Food Box programs or to make up for lower prices. There was a significant amount of money made available this year with average Class III and all-milk price for this year the highest since 2014. Farmers may be on their own next year and may need to do the best we can to remain profitable. However, volatility may likely remain higher than average as the world tries to come out of the pandemic.

Cheese:

Fill-in buying continues as retail orders are placed. Some buying is being done to rebuild inventory but contracting for next year has been limited. Some buyers feel there is further downside potential for prices as the winter progresses due to slowing demand and increasing milk production. Spot prices could move either way Friday depending on the business that needs to be accomplished.

Butter:

Price is right in the middle of blocks and barrels and a place where it has not been for quite some time. Price may move within a sideways trading range. There are reports of butter that is being put into storage due to heavy churning with supply now exceeding demand. However, this seems to be regional as some report continued strong movement to retail outlets. Exports have also picked up and may remain strong through the end of the year.





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