Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Trade Lower Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures rallied, but the strength may be short-lived. Traders may use the recent strength as a selling opportunity. The overall attitude of traders is bearish and they will use price swings to scalp the market for a profit if they guess correctly. Market fundamentals do not suggest a change in the trend. Milk production remains strong and above a year ago. Slaughter is showing signs of increasing, but the volume of culling is expected to be low. Feed prices are expected to remain reasonable, reducing the cost per cwt of milk. Milk production per cow is significantly higher than a year ago, with components higher. This is improving cheese yields and cream supplies. This is not expected to change anytime soon.

CHEESE:

The buying interest for blocks over the past two days may have nearly run its course. Buyers needed to step up to fill immediate orders that were received and came to the spot market to fill those orders. This is not expected to continue, as it seems unlikely that buying will continue even though prices are low. Buyers have no interest in building inventory.

BUTTER:

A further decrease in the butter price is possible, as there is quite a bit of butter available due to heavy churning activity. Retail demand may be filled, and overall demand may slow after the holiday season. The butter price is expected to remain rangebound through the end of the year.




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