Monday, December 1, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Spot Prices May Remain Choppy

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

The hope is milk futures will find support at these levels. The futures prices will follow spot prices, rather than technical analysis. Daily futures prices are not the price discovery mechanism, but rather the daily spot prices. The fundamentals are not bullish presently as milk production continues to outpace last year. Even though there was a decrease in cow numbers in the October Milk Production report, it will not tighten the milk supply anytime soon. USDA will release the Livestock Slaughter report Monday. It is uncertain if this will just be the delayed September report or the combined September and October reports.

CHEESE:

The demand for cheese has improved, but it may not be sufficient to increase spot prices anytime soon. Cheese plants are running on full schedules due to increased milk receipts. More milk was available for manufacturing over the Thanksgiving holiday and will be available later in the month. Cheese continues to be offered on the spot market to limit the build-up of inventory.

BUTTER:

The bounce in the butter price last week does not indicate the market has found a bottom, but the low price has increased retail demand. The holiday season will also be beneficial as more baking is done. International demand remains strong even though the world butter price has declined. The U.S. price remains very attractive to international buyers.




Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Spot Prices May Remain Choppy

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 8 Higher Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...