GENERAL OVERVIEW:
There was limited change in market fundamentals to indicate a strong market direction. The October Milk Production report had both bullish and bearish aspects to it. The decline in cow numbers from the previous months may be a long-term bullish aspect.
MILK:
Milk futures diverged, with Class III futures increasing slightly while Class IV futures came under further pressure. Both block cheese and butter prices fell to new lows for the year, but the weakness of nonfat dry milk added to the pressure on Class IV futures. Fluid milk sales in September increased 2.5% from September 2024. It has been rare for fluid milk sales to post gains over the past few years. Whole milk sales increased 2.7%; flavored whole milk jumped 12.0%; reduced fat decreased 3.8%; low fat milk sales decreased 0.1%; fat-free skim jumped 14.2%; flavored fat-reduced increased 12.9%; buttermilk increased 2.6%; and other fluid milk product sales increased 1.5%. Organic whole milk sales increased 3.8%; organic flavored whole milk fell 13.2%; organic low fat fell 18.8%; organic fat-free skim decreased 9.5%; organic flavored fat-reduced milk fell 19.5%; and organic other fluid milk product sales fell 68.3%.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:
| 3 Month: | $16.19 |
| 6 Month: | $15.99 |
| 9 Month: | $16.26 |
| 12 Month: | $16.55 |
CHEESE:
Cheese prices continue to decline, with blocks showing greater weakness. The move to new lows for the year during a time when demand generally is higher remains a concern for what prices may be like after the holiday period. There have been no loads traded of barrels over the past three weeks, and it appears the same may be true this week. There are only two more trading days remaining, as both the dairy futures and spot trading markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday.
BUTTER:
The butter price remains weak with a new low for the year again being made today. It is uncertain where the price will find support. The world price of butter remains significantly higher, keeping international interest strong. It is uncertain how strong exports have been in comparison to a year ago due to no reports having been released. Hopefully, the report will be released early next month.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:
December corn closed down 1.75 cents per bushel at $4.2375, January soybeans closed down 1.75 cents at $11.2325 and January soybean meal closed down $.90 per ton at $318.30. March Chicago wheat closed down 5.00 cents at $5.3475. February live cattle closed down $7.25 at $207.53. January crude oil is up $0.87 per barrel at $58.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203 points at 46,448, with the NASDAQ is up 599 points at 22,872.
