Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 48

California milk production is strong. Spot milk loads are available. Stakeholders convey higher year over year milk production is not always translating to higher availability of dry dairy product commodities. Most manufacturers say milk intakes remain steady or strong this week. According to the California Department of Water Resources, as of November 26, the statewide precipitation total is 2.30 inches above the historical mean for the current water year. 

Farm level milk output in Arizona is strengthening. Spot milk loads are somewhat looser. 

Week over week New Mexico milk production varies from steady to stronger. 

Pacific Northwest milk production varies from steady to stronger. Some manufacturers note milk intakes are above anticipated volumes. Stakeholders note purchases of spot milk loads from across state boarders as well. 

Week over week milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado is mixed. Some stakeholders convey later breeding times in 2025 are having some impacts on Q4 milk production. Idaho handlers convey year over year milk production is comfortably up. Idaho/Utah manufacturers note some production schedules are lighter due to the holiday week. Class I demand is strong, Class II demand varies from steady to lighter, and all other Class demands are steady throughout the region. 

Cream demand is mixed for the holiday week. Cream multiples are below the bottom end and above the top end of the week 47 All-Classes range. Condensed skim milk demand and availability are steady.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - August Dairy Exports Increased 3.0%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures closed unchanged to higher on moderate trading activity despite a slight decrease in the block cheese price. Class IV futures showed further weakness. August dairy exports were released, with total exports 3.0% above a year ago.

MILK:

It has been another dismal week for milk futures, even though Class III contracts closed unchanged to higher today. Class IV futures continued to decline, with November through March contracts below $14.00. Dairy exports were released for August, showing overall exports on a milk solids equivalent basis up 3.0% due to strong cheese and butterfat exports. This was a delayed report, but it finally provided information on what was taking place. This was the third consecutive month of increase, with year-to-date exports 2.2% above the same period a year ago. The year-to-date value of exports was 16% above the same period a year ago. However, the strong export pace has had little, if any, impact on domestic prices. Both block cheese and butter spot prices made new lows for the year this week. The dairy futures and options markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday, with futures trading opening at the usual time on Sunday night.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.13
6 Month:	$15.95
9 Month:	$16.19
12 Month:	$16.50

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks declined by 8 cents with ninr loads traded. Barrels remained unchanged with no loads traded. This is the fourth consecutive week that barrels have not had any loads traded. Dry whey declined 2.75 cents with 11 loads traded. Cheese exports in August totaled 54,110 metric tons, up 28.1% from August 2024. Year-to-date exports are up 15.3%. Lactose exports totaled 34,904 metric tons, up 4.3% from a year ago, with year-to-date exports up 1.1%. Whey exports totaled 42,977 metric tons, up 0.5%, with year-to-date exports down 2.3%. Whey protein concentrate exports reached 8,556 metric tons, up 7.7%, with year-to-date exports up 10.4% compared to the same period last year.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 2.75 cents with 19 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined by 4.0 cents with 19 loads traded. Butterfat exports in August totaled 10,916 metric tons, up 192.4% above August 2024. Year-to-date exports are 156.9% above the same period in 2024. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports totaled 56,434 metric tons, down 17.6%, with year-to-date exports down 13.0%. Whole milk powder exports totaled 2,179 metric tons, down 18.8% from August 2024 but up 41.4% year-over-year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

March corn closed up 7.00 cents per bushel at $4.4525, January soybeans closed up 6.75 cents at $11.3150, and January soybean meal closed steady at $320.40. March Chicago wheat closed up 1.25 cents at $5.4050. February live cattle closed up $5.60 at $212.93. January crude oil is up $0.60 per barrel at $58.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 315 points at 47,427, with the NASDAQ up 189 points at 23,215.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Bounces

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	7 Higher
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.20 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$4.20 Higher
DOW JONES:	388 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	198 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.32 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese prices slipped 0.50 cent, closing at $1.47 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5825 with no loads traded. The block/barrel spread is at 11.25 cents, which seems to be meaningless as it will not provide any indication of price direction. The dry whey price declined 0.75 cent, closing at 73.25, with seven loads traded. Class III futures are 5 cents lower to 12 cents higher. The butter price increased 2.00 cents, closing at $1.45 with 10 loads traded. This is the first price increase in seven consecutive trading sessions. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 1.75 cents to close at $1.1425 with four loads traded. This is the lowest price since Nov. 6. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 4.22 cents lower to 1.50 cents higher. Dry whey futures are unchanged to 0.50 cent lower. Cheese futures are 0.40-1.60 cents higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Trading Activity May Be Limited

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

Milk futures may see limited movement Wednesday with no specific direction. It is the last trading day of this week, with the dairy market closed Thursday and Friday. The spot markets will also be closed. The movement of spot prices will determine volatility and price movement. If the block cheese price shows further weakness, Class III futures may see a significant decline, as they have been holding up well so far this week, though blocks have declined. Futures may not be able to hold if further weakness is seen. Strong milk output and readily available dairy products leave the market in a bearish posture.

CHEESE:

The block/barrel price spread continues to widen. However, it seems the new pricing structure, not using barrels, has changed the impact of a wider spread and the trading activity on the spot market. The barrel market is not tight, but the business is being done in the country rather than on the spot market.

BUTTER:

The butter market does not indicate a bottom has been reached. Sellers continue to move butter to the market to keep inventory from building. Churns will slow the rest of the week, but that will not impact the market or supply. Churning will resume at full schedules next week as plants utilize the available cream supply. 

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Continued Pressure on Milk Futures with Lower Spot Prices

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures held fairly well today, but some contracts were posting double-digit losses. The market may see another washout if there is another day of lower spot prices. Wednesday is the last trading day of the week.

MILK:

There is continued pressure on milk futures due to the inability of the underlying spot prices to find a bottom. One has to wonder how low prices will move before the weakness runs its course. Farms are having a tough time with cash flow, and it looks like it is going to get worse before getting better. We have seen times like this before, but it is difficult during those times. The one thing that needs to be realized is that the market does not respect people, and it will move relative to supply and demand. However, some outside factors have had a substantial impact on the market this time. I have written about it before, but the beef-on-dairy phenomenon has created another factor that has moved the market outside of the usual fundamentals of supply and demand. Wednesday is the last day of trade for this week. Both the spot markets and the futures markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.12
6 Month:	$15.92
9 Month:	$16.16
12 Month:	$16.47

CHEESE:

The block cheese price continues to decline as buyers hold back, and sellers continue to move supply. It is possible that inventory has not declined seasonally as it usually does, which is putting pressure on the market. Without the cold storage reports to provide some idea of the level of inventory, we can only guess that the inventory remains large, with sellers wanting to limit the build through the end of the year.

BUTTER:

The price continues to fall, with the price now just 22 cents from the low in 2021. We certainly hope the price does not fall to that level, but there is no indication of a level of support.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 0.25 cent per bushel at $4.2350, January soybeans closed up 1.50 cents at $11.2475, and January soybean meal closed up $2.10 per ton at $320.40. March Chicago wheat closed up 4.50 cents at $5.3925. February live cattle closed down $0.20 at $207.33. January crude oil is down $0.74 per barrel at $58.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 664 points at 47,112, with the NASDAQ up 154 points at 23.026.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Update - Butter and Cheese Cannot Find a Bottom

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	1 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.17 Lower
DOW JONES:	308 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	58 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.06 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 5 cents to close at $1.4750 with three loads traded. This is the lowest price since April 4. The barrel price remained unchanged at $1.5825 with no loads traded. The dry whey price declined 2 cents, closing at 74.00 cents with three loads traded. Class III futures are 20 cents lower to 3 cents higher. The butter price declined 3 cents to close at $1.43 with three loads traded. This is the lowest price since Feb. 12, 2021. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.16 with five loads traded. Class IV futures are 10-15 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.27 to 3.50 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.97 cent lower to 0.85 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.10 to 2.10 cents lower.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Higher Futures

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	6 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Overnight trading in Class III futures was moderate, with prices higher. There is no reason for continued strength to develop, as the milk supply is plentiful. The trading activity remains confined to traders scalping the market with short-term positions in an attempt to take a small profit. Further weakness is likely, but traders do not want to load up on short positions in the event that something unexpected surfaces in the market. Culling may increase, as indicated by the October production report. Substantial pressure on cattle prices will have an impact on calf prices. This may increase the need for culling more heavily.

CHEESE:

It is uncertain where cheese prices may find support. A new low for the year in blocks does not bode well as we move through the holiday season. There is sufficient milk available for cheese plants with increased volume available as milk is diverted from bottling to the spot market over Thanksgiving.

BUTTER:

Increased demand for butter has not been sufficient to support the price. The high butterfat component in milk keeps the cream supply higher than usual. Butter output in August was 8.0% above the previous year, with September and October likely showing similar gains when those reports are released.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Increase

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

There was limited change in market fundamentals to indicate a strong market direction. The October Milk Production report had both bullish and bearish aspects to it. The decline in cow numbers from the previous months may be a long-term bullish aspect.

MILK:

Milk futures diverged, with Class III futures increasing slightly while Class IV futures came under further pressure. Both block cheese and butter prices fell to new lows for the year, but the weakness of nonfat dry milk added to the pressure on Class IV futures. Fluid milk sales in September increased 2.5% from September 2024. It has been rare for fluid milk sales to post gains over the past few years. Whole milk sales increased 2.7%; flavored whole milk jumped 12.0%; reduced fat decreased 3.8%; low fat milk sales decreased 0.1%; fat-free skim jumped 14.2%; flavored fat-reduced increased 12.9%; buttermilk increased 2.6%; and other fluid milk product sales increased 1.5%. Organic whole milk sales increased 3.8%; organic flavored whole milk fell 13.2%; organic low fat fell 18.8%; organic fat-free skim decreased 9.5%; organic flavored fat-reduced milk fell 19.5%; and organic other fluid milk product sales fell 68.3%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.19
6 Month:	$15.99
9 Month:	$16.26
12 Month:	$16.55

CHEESE:

Cheese prices continue to decline, with blocks showing greater weakness. The move to new lows for the year during a time when demand generally is higher remains a concern for what prices may be like after the holiday period. There have been no loads traded of barrels over the past three weeks, and it appears the same may be true this week. There are only two more trading days remaining, as both the dairy futures and spot trading markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday.

BUTTER:

The butter price remains weak with a new low for the year again being made today. It is uncertain where the price will find support. The world price of butter remains significantly higher, keeping international interest strong. It is uncertain how strong exports have been in comparison to a year ago due to no reports having been released. Hopefully, the report will be released early next month.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 1.75 cents per bushel at $4.2375, January soybeans closed down 1.75 cents at $11.2325 and January soybean meal closed down $.90 per ton at $318.30. March Chicago wheat closed down 5.00 cents at $5.3475. February live cattle closed down $7.25 at $207.53. January crude oil is up $0.87 per barrel at $58.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203 points at 46,448, with the NASDAQ is up 599 points at 22,872.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese and Butter Fall to New Lows for the Year

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	3 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$5.12 Lower
DOW JONES:	1657 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	805 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$5.11 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 2.50 cents, closing at $1.5250 with six loads traded. This moves the price to the lowest level of the year. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5825 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 76.00 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are 5 cents lower to 11 cents higher, with only the May and August contracts lower. The butter price declined 1.75 cents, closing at $1.46 with six loads traded. This is a new low for the year and the lowest price since Feb. 16, 2021. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 2.00 cents to close at $1.1625 with 10 loads traded. Class IV futures are 67-45 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.75 to 4.25 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 2.55 cents to 0.25 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.10 cent lower to 1.10 cents higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Futures Prices Expected Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	5 to 6 Lower

MILK:

The October Milk production report showed continued strong milk output that will keep the market supplied. However, lower milk prices may impact cow numbers as they declined by 7,000 head from September. This is the first month-over-month decline in cow numbers since December 2024. The income received from beef-on-dairy calves may not be sufficient to maintain cash flow, with lower production cows now being culled to reduce expenses and supplement income. However, strong milk production is expected to continue into next year. The dairy markets will have a short week with trade only taking place through Wednesday.

CHEESE:

Spot cheese prices are expected to continue to struggle as there is sufficient milk available for production. Spot milk is not tight, and more will be available this week as schools close and more fluid milk moves to the spot market. Cheese plants will remain on full schedules to handle the milk. The milk production report indicates continued strong milk production that might build inventory more rapidly through the first half of next year.

BUTTER:

The August Dairy Products report showed strong butter production and likely is the reason why the butter price is so low. We will eventually see the September and October reports as the USDA catches up after the shutdown; but strong production has continued due to heavy cream supplies. Low butter prices are expected to continue through the end of the year.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Milk Production Increased 3.7%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III milk futures closed under pressure due to the declining cheese and dry whey prices. October milk production was 3.7% higher in the country. Cow numbers declined from September. Cheese and butter production in August increased from a year earlier.

MILK:

The October Milk Production report was both bullish and bearish. Milk production in the top 24 states totaled 18.7 billion pounds, up 3.9% from October 2024. Production per cow was 30 pounds higher, averaging 2,049 pounds. Cow numbers decreased by 7,000 head from September. Milk output in the country increased by 3.7%, totaling 19.5 billion pounds. Milk output per cow averaged 2,033 pounds, up 29 pounds from October 2024. Cow numbers were 6,000 head less than in September. Milk prices may have been low enough with limited upside potential based on current futures prices to increase the need to cull more heavily. There were only three states that showed a decline in milk production. Washington declined 7.3%, New Mexico declined 4.4%, and Pennsylvania was down 0.5%. The state with the largest gain was Kansas with an increase of 21.2%. It was followed by South Dakota with a gain of 9.3% and Florida with an increase of 9.1%. California milk output jumped 6.9%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.17
6 Month:	$15.97
9 Month:	$16.23
12 Month:	$16.51

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks remained unchanged with 24 loads traded. Barrels declined 6 cents with no loads traded. This is the third consecutive week with no load of barrels traded on the spot market. The August Dairy Products report was released, which showed American cheese production up 0.3% from August 2024, totaling 474 million pounds. Italian-type cheese production totaled 510 million pounds, up 1.8% from a year ago. Total cheese output reached 1.20 billion pounds, up 0.5% from August 2024. Dry whey production was 68.3 million pounds, up 4.7%.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter fell 9.75 cents with 17 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged, with 30 loads traded. Butter production totaled 173 million pounds in August, up 8.1% from August 2024. Nonfat dry milk production was 6.8% higher, totaling 123.0 million pounds. Skim milk production totaled 42.3 million pounds, down 13.1%.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 1.00 cent per bushel at $4.2550, January soybeans closed up 2.50 cents at $11.2500 and January soybean meal closed up $1.60 per ton at $319.20. March Chicago wheat closed down 1.00 cent at $5.3975. February live cattle closed down $0.63 at $214.78. January crude oil is down $1.02 per barrel at $57.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 493 points at 46,245, with the NASDAQ up 195 points at 22,273.

October Milk Production up 3.9 Percent

October Milk Production up 3.9 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during October totaled 18.7 billion pounds, up 3.9 percent from October 2024. September revised production, at 18.2 billion pounds, was up 4.0 percent from September 2024. The September revision represented a decrease of 34 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,049 pounds for October, 30 pounds above October 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.14 million head, 211,000 head more than October 2024, but 7,000 head less than September 2025.   

October Milk Production in the United States up 3.7 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during October totaled 19.5 billion pounds, up 3.7 percent from October 2024.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,033 pounds for October, 29 pounds above October 2024.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.58 million head, 208,000 head more than October 2024, but 6,000 head less than September 2025. 

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Class III Futures Fall to New Lows

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	2 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.60 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.22 Higher
DOW JONES:	680 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	251 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.23 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined a penny, closing at $1.55 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 2.25 cents, closing at $1.5825 with no loads traded. The dry whey price declined 2.00 cents, closing at 76.00 cents with two loads traded. The weakness in all three categories put further pressure on Class III milk futures, with all contracts making new lows. The butter price remained unchanged at $1.4775 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat gained 0.75 cent to close at $1.1825 with 12 loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.50 to 2.75 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 3.75 cents lower. Cheese futures are steady to 1.40 lower. The October Milk Production report will be released today. I estimate milk production to be up 3.6% from the previous year, with cow numbers increasing 18,000 head from September. The Dairy Products report will also be released, but it is not certain which month it will report. The government shutdown resulted in two reports being missed.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 47

Stakeholders convey milk production is strong in California. Handlers note November 2025 milk production is up from October 2025. Although most manufacturers are running at or near full capacity production schedules, a few plant managers note some downtime. Despite spot milk loads being tight, some are available. 

Arizona and New Mexico handlers indicate farm level milk output is stronger. Manufacturers convey milk intakes are within seasonal expectations. 

Pacific Northwest handlers convey recent cooler weather is putting milk production back on track with expectations putting milk intakes in better shape for holiday production pushes. 

In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado, week over week milk output is mixed. Despite some stakeholders noting somewhat stronger milk production, spot milk availability is tight, especially in the Idaho/Utah part of the mountain states. Class I demand is strong, Class II and III demands are steady, and Class IV demand varies from steady to stronger, throughout the region. 

Cream demand is stronger. Spot cream availability varies from steady to tighter. Cream multiples are unchanged for week 47. A few stakeholders note cream buyers purchasing additional loads for immediate or near term delivery to contractual purchase agreements, due to lack of spot loads. No changes in condensed skim milk demand or availability are reported.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production and Dairy Products Reports Released Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Not much movement is expected in the cash market as buyers and sellers are accomplishing business without being aggressive. Trading activity in milk futures may be a combination of short covering due to the significant weakness this week and the uncertainty over what the October Milk Production report will show today. The market saw significant pressure from the September report and will again face this report two weeks later. I estimate milk production to be up 3.6% from the previous year, with cow numbers increasing 18,000 head from September. This may already be factored into the market. There is concern as to how low milk prices will need to go before culling increases, resulting in decreasing cow numbers. The Dairy Product report will be released this afternoon.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are not expected to fall apart, but neither are they expected to increase anytime soon. We have not been able to see what inventory has been doing or what exports have been doing, leaving the industry at a disadvantage. There will be no Cold Storage report until Dec. 23, when both the October and November reports will be released.

BUTTER:

The market is struggling and unable to find consistent support. Retail demand has improved, but it has not been enough to tighten the supply. Churns continue to run on full schedules, operating seven days a week.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Pressure Continues to Be Maintained on Milk Prices

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

It was another dismal day for the dairy complex. New lows again for Class III milk futures, with Class IV contracts following the same pattern. The USDA will release the October Milk Production report tomorrow.

MILK:

Milk production in the Eastern region is seasonally strong. At the same time, demand for milk and cream is increasing, keeping a balance between supply and demand. Plants have been running overtime to prepare for some downtime next week over the Thanksgiving holiday. More milk will be available on the spot market for those who want it. Spot milk prices are currently running $1.50 below to $1.50 over class. Many cheese plants will continue to operate throughout the holiday as the milk needs to be processed. Milk plants in the Central region are seeing steady volumes of milk over the recent few weeks, but the overall volume is higher than a year ago. The market is anticipating a significant increase in milk production in the October report that will be released tomorrow. Production per cow is expected to be significantly higher with another increase in cow numbers.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.37
6 Month:	$16.22
9 Month:	$16.46
12 Month:	$16.71

CHEESE:

Cheese demand has improved, but strong output keeps the market well-supplied and buyers unaggressive. The time of year does not favor an increase in prices or a change in trend. Lower prices should increase demand, but increased production keeps the market satisfied. The level of inventory is uncertain, as there has not been a cold storage report released since September. The next report is not scheduled to be released until December.

BUTTER:

The butter price is only 0.50 cent above the low of last week and the low of the year. There is a possibility that the price could slip below $1.4725 on Friday. If it holds above that level on Friday, it may decline below that level next week. There is no indication where support may be uncovered.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 3.25 cents per bushel at $4.2650, January soybeans closed down 13.75 cents at $11.2250 and December soybean meal closed down $4.90 per ton at $314.00. March Chicago wheat closed down 8.75 cents at $5.4075. December live cattle closed down $1.58 at $214.73. January crude oil is down $0.53 per barrel at $58.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 387 points at 45,752, with the NASDAQ down 486 points at 22,078. 

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Update - Barrel Cheese Slides With No Trading Activity

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	12 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$5.70 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.22 Lower
DOW JONES:	188 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	223 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.02 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained unchanged at $1.56 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 0.75 cent, closing at $1.6050 with no loads traded. The dry whey price declined 0.50 cent, closing at 78.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are unchanged to 12 cents lower. The butter price slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.4775 with seven loads traded. The deferred contracts are showing the most pressure. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent to close at $1.1750 with three loads traded. Class IV futures are 11 cents lower to 22 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.97 to 6.02 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.50 to 1.50 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.50 cent lower to 0.60 cent higher. 

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Activity Was Higher Than Usual

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures remain bearish with lower prices overnight and higher-than-usual trading activity. The pressure on Wednesday may be difficult to overcome. Traders may be bracing for another bearish milk production report on Friday. However, it may already be factored in once the report is released. Milk production continues to remain strong and is expected to remain that way through the end of the year and likely longer.

CHEESE:

The inability of the block cheese price to increase on Wednesday was a disappointment for traders. They quickly sold futures in the anticipation of further weakness. It further solidified the fact that there is limited upside potential for cheese prices.

BUTTER:

It certainly seems that butter will retest the low of last week and may even move lower. Retail demand has improved, but strong butter production keeps plants wanting to move supply to the market rather than building inventory.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Global Dairy Trade Auction Declines for the Seventh Consecutive Event

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures were hit hard today, with substantial losses seen throughout Class III and Class IV contracts. The Global Dairy Trade auction trade-weighted average declined 3.0% from the previous event. The December advanced Class I price increased from November.

MILK:

Milk futures were hit hard today with double-digit losses in most contracts. The pressure on Class III futures was from the disappointment that block cheese did not show further gains, and the pressure from the decline in the butter price. Class IV futures fell because of the decline of both butter and nonfat dry milk. The Federal Order advanced Class I price for December was $18.2, an increase of $1.46 from November. This price was $3.22 lower than December 2024. The Global Dairy Trade auction trade-weighted average declined 3.0% from the previous event. This is the seventh consecutive decline. There were 38,612 metric tons sold at an average of $3,678 per ton. Anhydrous milk fat declined 5.0% to $6,543 per metric ton or $2.97 per pound. Butter fell 7.6% to $5,886 per metric ton or $2.67 per pound. Cheddar cheese declined 2.7% to $4,328 per metric ton or $1.96 per pound. Skim milk powder declined 0.6% to $2,542 per metric ton or $1.14 per pound. Whole milk powder declined 1.9% to $3,452 per metric ton or $1.57 per pound. Mozzarella declined 2.8% to $3,214 per metric ton or $1.46 per pound.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.51
6 Month:	$16.36
9 Month:	$16.57
12 Month:	$16.79

CHEESE:

Traders were disappointed that the block cheese price could not increase further. The price has not been able to regain the losses of last week to move back above the bottom of the range of $1.5750. Cheese plants are running on full production schedules with spot milk available at higher than usual during this time of year.

BUTTER:

The price may retest the low of $1.47 before the end of the week. The weakness is setting the bearishness in futures, as many times butter is the barometer of the cheese market. Retail demand has improved, but churns are operating seven days a week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 7.00 cents per bushel at $4.2975, January soybeans closed down 17.25 cents at $11.3625 and December soybean meal closed down $8.10 per ton at $318.90. March Chicago wheat closed down 9.50 cents at $5.4950. December live cattle closed down $3.73 at $216.30. January crude oil is down $1.42 per barrel at $59.25. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47 points at 46,139, with the NASDAQ up 131 points at 22,564.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	8 Lower
SOYBEANS:	17 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$6.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$4.80 Lower
DOW JONES:	20 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	77 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.34 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price slipped 0.25 cent to close at $1.56 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained steady at $1.6125 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 678.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 2-35 cents lower. The January and February contracts are below $16.00. The butter price declined 4.50 cents, closing at $1.48 with three loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 1.75 cent, closing at $1.1775 with nine loads traded. Class IV futures are 14-42 cents lower. The January and February contracts are below $14.00. Butter futures are 0.25 to 6.25 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.75 to 2.27 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.60 to 2.90 cents lower.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uneventful Dairy Trading Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	6 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Bullish traders are searching for something to get excited about, but the current market shows little to fulfill that desire. Underlying cash prices show little support as the milk supply remains sufficient to maintain strong output of dairy products. Lower milk prices are not reducing milk output as farms continue to add cows to their herds. The October Milk Production report will be released on Friday, and it is expected to show an increase in cow numbers again. International dairy prices are decreasing, with the latest Global Dairy Trade auction showing a 3.0% decline in the trade-weighted average from the previous event.

CHEESE:

The barrel cheese market has been confusing, with little cash trading activity, and the price is at the bottom of the trading range it has been in since November. If the supply of barrels were tight, the price would be higher. Demand seems to be limited, leaving little reason for buyers to be aggressive. Much of the business is being done through usual channels in the country rather than on the spot market.

BUTTER:

The price may test the low again unless demand improves, and buyers need to come to the daily spot market to purchase loads to fill immediate orders. The bottom line is that there may be limited upside price potential through the end of the year.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Shows Further Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	2 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.70 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.00 Lower
DOW JONES:	322 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	154 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.69 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.50 cent, closing at $1.5625 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6125 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 78.50 cents. Class III futures are 7 cents lower to 9 cents higher. The butter prices decreased 2.50 cents, closing at $1.5250 with five loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.1950 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 2 to 33 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.07 to 5.90 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.02 cent lower to 0.75 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.60 cent lower to 0.80 cent higher.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Trading Activity May Be Limited Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	3 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures have developed a wide sideways trading pattern since early September in the December contract but continue to see pressure in later contracts. Strong milk production and increasing cow numbers are not providing long-term support. USDA will release the October Milk Production report on Friday, with traders anticipating continued strong milk production and higher cow numbers. This may be a greater concern after the holiday demand is finished. We have not had a monthly inventory report since the government shutdown, leaving uncertainty about whether inventories have been decreasing as usual. A report is expected to be released next week, but its contents are uncertain. It should be the report for October inventory, but we have not had one for September.

CHEESE:

Prices are expected to continue to chop around with uncertain price direction. Buyers and sellers are doing business as they need to without having to be aggressive either way. The recent decline in blocks below the trading range does not bode well for the market.

BUTTER:

The butter price may stair-step higher moving into and through the holiday season as demand has been improving. Cream available for butter production has tightened somewhat due to increased demand from Class II product manufacturers as they have increased production for the holiday season.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Close Mostly Higher

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures shook off the negativity of the weakness of barrel cheese and butter to find strength as Monday progressed. The barrel price does not have an impact on the class prices, but it does impact the blocks to some extent.

MILK:

It was positive to see some strength come into milk futures as traders digested the spot prices movement. However, the minor gains do little to indicate the market may have found support. The bearishness of the September Milk Production report continues to reverberate through the trade. The larger unexpected increase of 40,000 head from August leaves a cloud over the market. The current high cow numbers, with a production of 30 pounds per cow, leaves a lot of milk available for the market to absorb. Third-quarter milk production was 3.8% higher than the same period a year ago. There were only four of the top 23 states that showed declines in milk output in September. Washington declined 8.5%, Illinois was down 1.5%, New Mexico was down 1.3%, and Ohio was down 0.4%. The state with the largest increase was Kansas with a gain of 21.1%t, followed by Georgia, up 9.8%, and Idaho, up 9.1%. California was 2.4% higher, with Wisconsin up 2.8%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.75
6 Month:	$16.72
9 Month:	$16.79
12 Month:	$16.98

CHEESE:

Block cheese made a small attempt at rebounding from the low, but the strength lacked conviction. The strong milk production being seen keeps sufficient milk available to the market. Buyers purchase supplies when they need to fill orders, but see no need to purchase to build inventory, as there is little anticipation for higher prices anytime soon.

BUTTER:

The butter price worked higher last week, but it may have reached a threshold again with buyers stepping back in anticipation of the price slipping back down again. The price may be able to hold above the low and see some bounces as holiday demand improves, but the level of butter production will keep the upside limited for the foreseeable future.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 4.50 cents per bushel at $4.3475, January soybeans closed up 32.75 cents at $11.5725 and December soybean meal closed up $8.30 per ton at $330.80. December Chicago wheat closed up 17.00 cents at $5.4425. December live cattle closed up $2.13 at $221.28. December crude oil is down $0.35 per barrel at $59.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 557 points at 46,590, with the NASDAQ down 193 points at 22,708.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Shows Continued Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Higher
SOYBEANS:	32 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$8.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.80 Higher
DOW JONES:	19 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	41 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.01 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.75 cents, closing at $1.5575 with 16 loads traded. The price did move up to $1.5675 at one point during the trading period but could not hold that price. The barrel cheese price decreased 3.00 cents, closing at $1.6125 with no loads traded. Barrels continue to follow the pattern of limited to no trading activity. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent, closing at 78.50 with one load traded. Class III futures are 6 cents lower to 11 cents higher. The butter price decreased 2.50 cents, closing at $1.55 with two loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.25 cents with six loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.70 to 3.97 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.72 cent lower to 0.12 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.10 cent lower to 1.30 cents higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Will Proceed With Caution Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	8 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures may struggle to recover from the losses incurred after the belated release of the September Milk Production report. The large increase in cow numbers was a surprise, but it was the reason for the strong increase in milk production. Traders may be unwilling to buy into the market aggressively this week due to the release of the October Milk Production report on Friday. A further increase in cow numbers in October is certainly possible. The weather has been good for cow comfort and strong milk production. Processing plants are receiving sufficient milk to satisfy demand.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price falling below the trading range it has been in over the past year does not bode well for the price for the rest of the year. Price fell back to the lowest level it had been since April 12, 2024. The barrel price remains in the range but may test the low soon.

BUTTER:

The price had a nice rebound last week, but it is uncertain whether it will hold. Retail demand is improving, but that may not be enough to provide continued support. It is possible the market may have been overdone to the downside as buyers had held off too long. The price may be correcting to move closer in line with fundamentals.