Wednesday was a very positive day for milk futures. Class II contracts moved to limit up at one point later in the trading day. One Class IV contract traded limit up at one point as well.
MILK:Class III contracts are now above $17 again, showing better potential for milk prices if they can hold. The market was dominated by short-covering on Wednesday rather than new buying interest. Traders are not likely interested in establishing long-term positions and will remain cautious over the upside potential. Milk production is increasing in much of the country. Cow comfort is improving with better feed intake. Some of the production increase may be tempered by the return of hot weather this week, but it is not forecast to last long, which will limit the impact it will have on production. The advanced Class I price for October is $18.04. This is $0.66 less than September and $5.13 lower than October 2024. Dairy exports in July were 7% higher than in July 2024. This was the second-highest volume for any month since August 2022. Higher world prices compared to U.S. prices should result in continued strength through the rest of the year.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:| 3 Month: | $16.85 |
| 6 Month: | $17.25 |
| 9 Month: | $17.24 |
| 12 Month: | $17.27 |
Cheese prices increased with limited buying interest and sellers holding back on their offers of cheese. It is uncertain whether sellers will hold back to wait for higher prices or if they will take advantage of the bounce to move more cheese on Thursday. There has not been much change in demand. Cheese exports were strong in July, totaling 52,105 metric tons, up 29.3% from July 2024. Year-to-date exports are up 13.5%. Whey exports totaled 45,398 metric tons, up 7% from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are 2.7% below the same period last year. Whey protein concentrate +80 exports totaled 8,158 metric tons, up 17.7% from July 2024. Year-to-date exports are up 10.9% from last year.
BUTTER:Butterfat exports continue to show phenomenal growth. Exports totaled 12,198 metric tons in July, up 157.7% from a year earlier. Year-to-date exports are 151.4% above the same period in 2024. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export totaled 59,925 metric tons, down 15.7% from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are down 12.3% from a year ago. Whole milk powder exports totaled 3,200 metric tons, up 99.4% from July 2024, with year-to-date exports up 52.3%.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:December corn closed down 2.75 cents per bushel at $4.2675, November soybeans closed down 6 cents at $10.4375 and December soybean meal closed down $.40 per ton at $285.70. December Chicago wheat closed down 5.75 cents at $5.2825. October live cattle closed down $2.35 at $231.10. October crude oil is down $0.53 per barrel at $63.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 260 points at 46,018, with the NASDAQ down 73 points at 22,261.
